Prediction markets for Science

Prediction markets have recently been established as popular forecasting tools. By organizing markets on research projects, we are exploring how such markets can contribute to the objectives of scientific research.

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Publications

Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015

Nature Human Behaviour, volume 2, pages 637–644 (2018)

Authors: Camerer, Colin F., Anna Dreber, Felix Holzmeister, Teck-Hua Ho, Jürgen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Michael Kirchler, Gideon Nave, Brian A. Nosek, Thomas Pfeiffer, Adam Altmejd, Nick Buttrick, Taizan Chan, Yiling Chen, Eskil Forsell, Anup Gampa, Emma Heikensten, Lily Hummer, Taisuke Imai, Siri Isaksson, Dylan Manfredi, Julia Rose, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, and Hang Wu

DOI: 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z

Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study

Journal of Economic Psychology, in press (2018)

Authors: Eskil Forsell, Domenico Viganola, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian A. Nosek, Magnus Johannesson, and Anna Dreber

DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.009

Evaluating Replicability of Laboratory Experiments in Economics

Science, 351 (6280), pp.1433-1436 (2016)

Authors: Camerer, Colin F., Anna Dreber, Eskil Forsell, Teck-Hua Ho, Jürgen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Michael Kirchler, Johan Almenberg, Adam Altmejd, Taizan Chan, Emma Heikensten, Felix Holzmeister, Taisuke Imai, Siri Isaksson, Gideon Nave, Thomas Pfeiffer, Michael Razen, and Hang Wu

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf0918

Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Research Evaluations

Royal Society Open Science, 2, 150287 (2015)

Authors: Munafo, Marcus R., Thomas Pfeiffer, Adam Altmejd, Emma Heikensten, Johan Almenberg, Alexander Bird, Yiling Chen, Brad Wilson, Magnus Johannesson, and Anna Dreber

DOI: 10.1098/rsos.150287

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(50), pp.15343-15347 (2015)

Authors: Dreber, Anna, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1516179112